Australia’s shortage of experienced truck drivers may expose a problem decades in the making: freight prices built around a workforce whose bargaining power was weaker than the industry’s economics justified.
That is the central argument in a September 2026 working paper by Ray Hassall of Lincoln Regulatory Consulting, The structural legacy of labour oversupply in Australian heavy vehicle driving: Demographic anomalies, trauma, migration and wage depression (1960–2026).
Hassall argues that an unusually large supply of drivers in the late twentieth century, coupled with pressure from powerful freight buyers and barriers preventing owner-drivers from leaving the industry, helped normalise rates that did not fully reflect the cost and risks of the work.
The veterans argument is a hypothesis
One provocative part of the paper suggests returning Vietnam War veterans, including some coping with untreated trauma, may have been drawn to the independence of long-distance driving and may have remained in the industry despite worsening returns. Hassall expressly describes this as a constructed model rather than a demonstrated account of veterans’ employment choices. The paper says the demographic evidence for the baby-boomer cohort and historical freight-rate pressures is stronger.
Its better-documented explanation for why drivers continued operating despite poor returns is economic: vehicle debt, the prospect of losing invested capital and limited alternative employment. Hassall points to the 1984 National Road Freight Industry Inquiry’s discussion of those exit barriers.
What changes when experienced drivers leave?
The question for today’s freight industry is whether a model that once relied on drivers absorbing commercial pressure can recruit, train and retain enough replacements as older operators retire. The paper also examines migration and licensing pathways, emphasising that training quality and demonstrated competence are more useful tests than a driver’s birthplace.
Hassall reviews competing explanations and the more recent road-transport reforms rather than presenting one historical theory as settled fact. He proposes fourteen policy options, each with identified objections.
What it means for operators: A shortage of experienced drivers is not only a recruitment issue. It raises questions about the rates customers pay, the hours and risks drivers absorb, the cost of training and the sustainability of smaller fleets.
Source: Ray Hassall, Lincoln Regulatory Consulting, working paper, September 2026. This article reports and examines the author’s arguments; the paper’s hypotheses are not independent findings of WWTG.